Covid-19 – the USA & the World
Daily growth rate of the number of Covid-19 Cases (i.e., positively tested) is shown as a function of the total number of Cases on a log-log scale.
This facilitates comparison of the dynamic of the pandemic in various countries, regions, etc. The data have been smoothed using a simple, 5-day standard moving average (SMA5) algorithm.
The countries represented with solid lines adopted physical distancing measures early on and aggressively. The countries represented with dashed lines adopted physical distancing measures much later on. China is a borderline case from many perspectives, perhaps even with compromised data, but is shown here because of the world-wide acceptance of it being the 'birthplace' of SARS-CoV-2 in the humans.
Also shown for each county are the reported numbers of total cases and total deaths as well as the case fatality rate.
The Days-to-Double – USA
DD shows the number of days that it would take to double a given quantity (here either positives, in blue, or deaths, in red) given such instantaneous, in this case day-over-day, rate of growth.
For instance, a reading of DD of ~20 on May 2nd for the USA, means that the number of deaths (red) would be doubling every ~20 days given the rate of increase experienced when going from May 1st to May 2nd.
These data have been smoothed using a 5-day standard moving average (SMA5) algorithm.
The Case Fatality Rate – USA
For each date on the x-axis, the total number of deaths (up to and including that date) is divided by the total number of positively tested (up to and including that date) and this ratio is shown as a percentage on the y-axis.
At any given moment of an ongoing pandemic, CFR can be very different and higher than the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). Best estimate of IFR for the SARS-CoV-2 virus is ~0.3-0.5% or lower.
The Days-to-Double – World
A reading of ~28 DD on April 30th for the World means that the number of positives would be doubling every ~28 days given the rate of increase experienced when going from April 29th to April 30th.
These data have been smoothed using a 5-day standard moving average (SMA5) algorithm.
The Case Fatality Rate – World
For each date on the x-axis, the total number of deaths (up to and including that date) is divided by the total number of positively tested (up to and including that date) and this ratio is shown as a percentage on the y-axis.
At any given moment of an ongoing pandemic, CFR can be very different and higher than the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). Best estimate of IFR for the SARS-CoV-2 virus is ~0.3-0.5% or lower.